Election 2016 Forecast

Taken from the Republican National Convention Review of the 2012 election loss.

If Hispanic Americans perceive that a GOP nominee or candidate does not want them in the United States (i.e. self-deportation), they will not pay attention to our next sentence. It does not matter what we say about education, jobs or the economy. If Hispanics think we do not want them here they will close their ears to our policies.

Support for Hispanics

After three weeks of appearing to soften his position on the 11 million undocumented Hispanic workers in the United States, some few hours after looking positively Presidential standing beside the President of Mexico, Donald Trump took to the stage at a rally in Phoenix Arizona, to clarify his position on immigration.

We consider Florida, as does the forecast by FiveThirtEight, to be the state most likely to tip the 2016 election result. If you look at the electoral college, demographics, and "near certain" polling at this stage of the race it is almost certain that Trump can not win the 2016 election without winning the 29 electoral votes in the state of Florida.

August 31 2016 may become known as Trump's last Stand.


I understand that the media need to make the election race tense and exciting. This is what will glue their respective audiences to their cable channels over the next 10 weeks. But media, and I mean all of you, it does not take a rocket scientist to report accurately on the events of August 31'st. Two weeks of a more rational Trump, and a stream of email and Clinton Foundation scandals, are not an excuse to mix national polls with immigration's impact on swing states.

In 2012 Romney won 27% of the Hispanic vote and lost Florida. The increase in Hispanic voters in Florida, from 13.9% in 2012 to 14.9% in 2016, makes their votes all the more critical to winning the 29 electoral votes Florida offers.

Simply put, assuming Trump wins a historically high share of independent white voters, and that his appeal to black voters gets him to match Romney's results, simple maths says that Trump MUST win some 44% of Hispanic vote.

If Trump does not win this portion of the Hispanic vote, he will lose Florida, and lose the 2016 General Election.

The votes are there to be won. 26.7% of Hispanic voters in Florida are registered Republican. 34% are registered Independent. Recent meetings with Hispanic leaders, including: Alfonso Aguilar, President Latino Partnership for Conservative Principles; Javier Polomarez, CEO Hispanic Chamber of Commerce; Jacob Monty, National Hispanic Advisory Council; made progress in overcoming some of Trump's more "nasty" Hispanic primary rhetoric.

Last night, to roars of build a wall, and Mexico will pay for the wall, Donald Trump doubled down on his extreme alt-right position and played to the Republican alt-base. Just as general George Armstrong Custer ignored his advisors wisdom, refusing the Gatling guns offered to him, and led himself, two of his brothers, a nephew, and 700 men to their death, so Donald Trump played to the crowd and appeared to harden rather than soften his position. Unless you take what he said later, to mean that there will not be 100% deportation. What follows is a transcript from Trump's speech!

"In several years, when we have accomplished all of our enforcement goals – and truly ended illegal immigration for good, including the construction of a great wall, and the establishment of our new lawful immigration system – then and only then will we be in a position to consider the appropriate disposition of those who remain."

I refuse to give "air" to Trump's statements which include, "what we do know, despite the total lack of media curiosity, is that Hillary Clinton promises a radical amnesty combined with a radical reduction in immigration enforcement." Please do not believe these words spoken by Mr. Trump. They are not true. The facts can be found at these three web sites: Illegal Immigration Statistics; ICE Removal Statistics: ICE Policies. I weep for the families who have lost a loved one to a crime committed by an illegal alien. But these tragedies are not intended to be used as food for political point scoring.

Since coming to office in 2009, Obama’s government has deported more than 2.5 million people—up 23% from the George W. Bush years. More shockingly, Obama is now on pace to deport more people than the sum of all 19 presidents who governed the United States from 1892-2000. Deportation focus is strongly aimed at criminals.

I predict that next weeks polls will show Hispanic voters fleeing the Republican party. Trump will be fortunate to hold on to 13%. Please refer to our introduction by the RNC. Then consider why all three leaders listed earlier, came out and announced that they were leaving the Republican party. One went so far as to say, "this was the final nail in the coffin".

Trump may have made his last stand, but that still leaves the U.S.A. with 11 million undocumented workers. Most of whom have been in the country for 8 plus years. Many of whom are solid God fearing families with well disciplined children.

Please can our media initiate a reasoned conversation on immigration policy? Please can our media stop the election hype and do some accurate reporting? We have a human crisis that should not be treated as a political football.

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