Election 2016 Newsletter

Introduction: Up again at 5:00am Hawaii time. To watch the sun rise over the ocean. For Mary and I are on vacation and celebrating the 15 years since Jesus called me to follow Him on 10th October 2001. But I am told Election 2016 waits for no person. So here we go ...

I confess that I am finding it progressively more difficult to keep my personal feelings about the 2016 election out of this newsletter. In the last 7 days I have heard; "Clinton is the Devil" - "Trump is a sexual predator" - and - "you can smell sulphur when Obama enters the room".  You can connect the following words to your person/s of choice; crook, psychotic, liar, rapist ...   

I accept American politics has degenerated into a winner take all, no holds barred, at any cost, persuit for the most powerful position in the world. I am sure that this conduct is not becoming this great country. Founded by people seeking religious freedom, and held that out to be an example of democracy to the rest of the world.

I did not expect the Access Hollywood video that was released on Friday afternoon.

I could never have imagined what I am watching now ...

Weeks News: The weeks political news began in an expected way.

- Governor Mike Pence won the VP debate by a narrow margin.
- Bill Clinton called Obamacare  "crazy"
- Polls continue to turn towards Clinton

Hurricane Matthew replaced our political speculation on Thursday & Friday morning. I have uncovered later news; over 1,000 people killed in Haiti; billions of damage in Florida; South Carolina and North Carolina. All ignored from Friday afternoon ...

Think of this, as you review the polls, and the dumpster diving that follows. Florida is a must win state for Trump. Governor Rick Scott; manager of the Trump Super Pac; rightly order an evacuation; closes all voter registration offices; to protect residents from hurricane Matthew. Then Scott refuses to extend voter registration deadline. What? But our democratic system works; for the court immediately overturns this blatant party bias; and today extended voter registration to October 18th.  

I wonder if there is a person who own a TV, who has not watched and heard what Trump said on Access Hollywood?

Sundays 2nd debate, where Trump described his words as "locker room banter" is being called the most dirty debate in media history. Trump's insistence to retaliate by introducing Bill Clintons past took the conversation lower quickly.

Republicans, including Senator John McCain and Paul Ryan, publicly distanced themselves. Trump's response, "they don't know how to win. I will teach them" and "the shackles are off" and declaring war on the RNC, is being called a desperate path to victory or suicide.

8:00pm PST: Wall Street Journal is reporting multiple people stepping forwards to testify to Trump's predatory behavior ...

Update: This week FiveThirtyEight's election forecast: Clinton 70.8% - up to - Clinton 79.9% - and at 83.3% latest ...

It is hard to imagine how Trump can overcome the information that is being disclosed. Unless it is not true?

Data: We have created three apolitical web pages that provide accurate information on where the race stands.

i) Electoral map: Can Trump Get 270 Electoral Votes
The map is updated each Tuesday evening with cumulative poll data from Real Clear Politics.

Latest Projection: Trump 187: Clinton 272 (excluding states where spread is too close to call)

ii) Trend Analysis: Road to The Presidency
The trend table has 13 rows. One for each week leading up to the election.

Latest Trend: Clinton up from 70.8% to 79.9%.

iii) Swing States: Analysis of Swing States
This page has the same table as the national prediction, 16 battleground states representing 200 electoral votes.

Pages include links to Real Clear Politics, and FiveThirty Eight, for those looking to dig deeper.

Editorial Opinion

It is hard to speak wisely on how conservatives should behave as the moral character of their elected candidate is illumined. In many ways I think that the results of this election are insignificant compared to the potential split that looms for the Republican party.

Dirty politics has reached a new level of low. Emotions are riding high and facts are few!

I will comment more on the 9th of November, when I know what the electorate has said!

Get Smart about Politics™