Introduction: Our fifth week, and I have fourteen more pages of notes on political media coverage. Ouch ...
I did hear one interesting comment. It went something like this, "The campaigns in 2008 and 2012 demonstrated that the elections can be won if the base is energized." The problem I see is that many voters are suffering from political fatigue. To overcome this, we are getting blame game and base energizing campaigning, on steroids.
The polls are closing significantly. Clinton's forecast to win (FiveThirtEight) has dropped from 78.5% on 16th August; to a slender 55.7% yesterday.
Clinton is polling 272 electoral votes; where there is a spread of more than 3.1%
Trump has a path if the current polling holds, if the trend holds, if he can wins either of PA or VA. Lots of if's ...
I agree with the media that we have seen the end of the convention bounces. Polling is reflecting both candidates high negatives and the polarizing two party politics. I have spoken to enough people on both sides, heard their struggle to hear facts about the other sides candidate, to think that either base is going to change sides at this stage.
Monday's debate will launch us into the final 7 week sprint, for the persuadable and to turn out the vote.
Weeks News: Last week I listed all the news topics covered, although I did not expect many people to actually read them.
I do not know how anyone can objectively predict (certainly not on cable media) what Trumps "brief" admission that Obama is an American citizen; or Clinton's apparent recovery from pneumonia; or the terrorism in New York; or a call to get out the vote at the Congressional Black Caucus Foundation Dinner; or the collapse of the cease fire in Syria; or the tragic shootings and riots on this mornings news; will have on Mondays debate. Let alone on 8th November.
I will watch the mathematical trends.
They are "mostly" objective and certainly do not have strong feelings.
Update: This week FiveThirtyEight's election forecast: Clinton 67.0% - to - Clinton 55.7%
Polling continues to shift towards Trump
As I said in my introduction; Trump is within one state of being forecast to win.
Data: We have created three apolitical web pages that provide accurate information on where the race stands.
i) Electoral map: Can Trump Get 270 Electoral Votes
The map is updated each Tuesday evening with cumulative poll data from Real Clear Politics.
Latest Projection: Trump 187: Clinton 272 (excluding states where spread is too close to call)
ii) Trend Analysis: Road to The Presidency
The trend table has 13 rows. One for each week leading up to the election.
Latest Trend: Clinton down from 65.9% to 55.7%.
iii) Swing States: Analysis of Swing States
This page has the same table as the national prediction, 16 battleground states representing 200 electoral votes.
Pages include links to Real Clear Politics, and FiveThirty Eight, for those looking to dig deeper.
Last week I said that I would be watching for additional fact on the Trump Foundation. This is not because I am biased. I think that there are many facts available on Clinton's eMails, the FBI investigation, the Clinton Foundation and Clinton's public service record. These facts allow each of us, to the extent we want to base our decision on facts, to do our research and make an informed opinion.
I want accurate information on how Mr. Trump has handled his own and other peoples monies. I do not have access to Trump's tax records. The information on Trump University; Trump's business interests; Trump's domestic and International business relationships is easily skewed to fit any bias. The Trump Foundation has a public record of monies contributed and monies paid out. I plan to publish a page on our web site that lists the Trump Foundations financial transactions. For myself and anyone interested.
It has been interesting to see the media setting the stage for next Monday's debate. Candidate expectations, topics, personal appearance, past anecdotes, past results, and more more & more ...
I will save my comments for next Wednesdays newsletter!