Introduction: One could allege that this weeks update is late because I am on vacation, or because I gave priority to speaking at a bible study with Pastor Harold Kilborn of Koloa Church, who preached the Gospel to me 15 years ago, but one would be wrong. I decided to listen to Wednesday afternoons final debate, and to hear out the feedback, if one could call the main media, new media, and the candidates rhetoric such?
The swing states are well into early voting. The traditional polls are strongly in favor of Clinton. I hold that each debate, and the resulting cumulative polling trends have progressively validated an opinion that Clinton will win. However, and thank you to those who wrote in, I was reminded that there is a significant body of people who believe that Trump will win, and that each debate and the resulting new media polls have systemically validated their opinion.
Much wiser people than me have been derailed predicting the demise of Trump. My research shows that this alt-opinion is based on two factors; i) that the traditional polls are not based on the correct scientific/data set; ii) that there are many Trump supporters who are not announcing their actual intentions to the pollsters. I wanted to include this alt-opinion in my introduction. I would rather be explicitly wrong, than be accused of not considering all views. At the same time; I can state with some certainty; that someone is going to have egg on their faces come 9th November.
It is not possible for Clinton to be predicted to win; and for Trump to be predicted to win; and for both groups of predictors to be correct.
Weeks News: The weeks political news continued with its expected politics.
- The administration confirmed that eMail hacks published on wiki-leaks were probably done by Russia.
- Putin surrogate suggests greater threat of war with Russia if Clinton elected.
- Russian official media released that Putin will work with whomever is elected President.
- Michelle Obama gives politicians a lesson on public speaking.
- Missiles are launched by US navy against Yemen rebels
- Operation to take Mosul is launched
- Samsung provide 5.3 billion dollar loss for scrapping of latest phone.
Then came the debate ...
Most objective watchers agree that Trump narrowly won the first exchange. Covering the Supreme Court and abortion issues. The exchange on immigration was also close. Initially favoring Trump, until Clinton alleged "Trump would be Putin's puppet" (about the 40th minute) and succeeded in getting under Trump's skin.
Trumps 2 minutes on the economy, which could have been his strength, turned into a 60 second rant on Clinton. His strong positions on NAFTA and TPP were diffused by time wasted, walls, bad hombres, and Putin's superiority in nuclear weapons negotiations. Anger is no friend to rational debate.
Section four was titled "fit to be president". I think Trump knew he had done poorly on the economy. The coin toss meaning he was required to answer first on this segment gave him little time to regroup; and answer to the allegations by nine women that he had been sexually inappropriate with them. Clinton got the expected questions on her email server. The Clinton Foundation, and about the recent wiki-leaks covering her campaign manager. Having listened to both their answers, I see the obvious need for preparation when it comes to answering questions like these.
We all know what came next ...
Trump, "I will keep you in suspense on my decision to accept the election results."
The final two segments, covering foreign hot spots and GDP, fell on deaf ears, at least listening to the media since, over and over and over and over ....
The results: CNN: Clinton 52% Trump 39% YouGov: Clinton: 49% Trump 39% Drudge: Clinton 13% Trump 87%
Update: This week FiveThirtyEight's election forecast: Clinton 84.0% - up from - Clinton 79.9%
If the traditional polls are right, and the traditional debate polls are right; this election has been decided.
Data: We have created three apolitical web pages that provide accurate information on where the race stands.
i) Electoral map: Can Trump Get 270 Electoral Votes
The map is updated each Tuesday evening with cumulative poll data from Real Clear Politics.
Latest Projection: Trump 187: Clinton 322 (excluding states where spread is too close to call)
ii) Trend Analysis: Road to The Presidency
The trend table has 13 rows. One for each week leading up to the election.
Latest Trend: Clinton up from 79.9% to 84.0%.
iii) Swing States: Analysis of Swing States
This page has the same table as the national prediction, 16 battleground states representing 200 electoral votes.
Pages include links to Real Clear Politics, and FiveThirty Eight, for those looking to dig deeper.
Editorial Opinion
I am genuinely concerned about the allegations of a rigged election.
Media: I do believe that the media is biased. But not only/all politically as is so often suggested. All media, traditional and new, is consumed with profits. If you examine each television channel; follow the money, follow the audiences; you can see how they are being influenced. And shame on them when the information is wrong and politically motivated to be wrong. I sincerely hope that cable television will return to its roots as accurate providers of factual news and excellent opinion. When it comes to new media, or the so called alt-media, I rue the lack of editorial integrity and information accuracy. I encourage all our readers to vote with their fingers. If the web pages, or Facebook posts, or twitters are plain wrong, just leave. It is easy to fact check information. I believe we owe it to ourselves to not fill our minds reading idle speculation.
Voter fraud: Allegations of voter fraud are not helpful to American democracy, let alone any international opinion on America. I have no doubt that there are instances where people try to cheat the system. But a recent study shows fewer than 31 proven instances of voter fraud in over one billion votes cast. There are 1,000's of committed people, in both parties, working in all 50 states and all their districts; trying to set a standard for free and fair democratic elections. I agree with Rubio and Obama; material voter fraud is simply not possible in America.
Never, going back to 1797, has there been any serious attempt to de-legitimize the American electoral system.
Late on 8th November; I hope that all Americans will accept the voice of the electorate; bring an end to this most bitter election season ever; and start to pray for God's grace and wisdom for our newly elected leaders.
Get Smart about Politics™