Election 2016 Newsletter

Introduction: I woke at 5:00am PST to watch the early morning news. Hoping for something interesting to add to this weeks commentary!

To learn ...

i) Howard Dean has doubled down on his comment that Trump is manifesting symptoms of Cocaine use. I find this as bizarre as Rudy Giuliani alleging Clinton has a neurological health disorder. I know that guess sniffing under stress, blinking and stumbling are potential indicators of something, but where does foolish speculation stop? I give Joe Scarborough of MSNBC all credit for demanding an apology from the Clinton Campaign. Dean is a campaign surrogate. Joe asked the same from the Trump campaign, to no avail, over Clinton's health.

ii) Alicia Machado, who won the Miss Universe pageant in 1996, aka Miss Piggy and Miss Housekeeping by Trump, who did add some body weight during her year in office; is now a U.S citizen and getting a lot of media attention.

Trump's Foundation continues to be investigated, Clinton's missing emails remain missing, and media bosses celebrate 84 million viewers of Monday's debate ...

Weeks News: Last week, as anticipated, was dominated by speculation on the debate, with a few juicy tit bits thrown in.

Ted Cruz: endorsed Donald Trump in one of the more spectacular flips in recent political history.
Donald Trump: proposes Stop and Frisk as solution to Chicago violence. This has been ruled unconstitutional; fact!
Lester Holt: debate moderator is a registered Republican, despite suggestions that he is a Democrat
Polls: For first time since we started tracking the polls; Trump has a path to win; Florida is a must win for Trump

It was in this context that 84 million people watched 90 minutes of debate, the first debate, on Monday night.

Lester Holt introduced three subjects to be covered; each to get 2 x 15 minute spots; i) Achieving Prosperity; ii) America's Direction; iii) Security

I spend some time yesterday; calling friends; asking a stranger in the dental office; questioning my support group, even the bank tellers; if anyone watching the debate had changed their position as a result of what they heard.

Result: No changes. Please please; if you watched the debate and have changed your position; or if you know anyone who watched the debate and has changed their position; can you email me what and why?

I will not repeat the specific comments made. Other than to say people heard what they wanted to hear. Trump supporters heard that he is for change, and she is a 30 year established politician. Clinton supporters heard that he remains loose with the facts, and unqualified to be commander in chief.  Drudge report scored the debate 80% Trump and 20% Clinton. CNN scored the debate 62% Clinton and 27% Trump.

RCP Cumulative polls; Clinton up; 0.6%
FiveThirtyEight; Adjusted Leader: Trump up 2%

Fact: both polls admit that they do not include "get out the vote" - or - "motivation of the base" - in their calculations.
Gore lost Florida; and the 2000 election; by 537 votes
Guess where Clinton and Trump were campaigning yesterday?

Update: This week FiveThirtyEight's election forecast: Clinton 55.7% - to - Clinton 55.2%

This does not show Clinton dropped to 51.2% on Monday; but has since recovered to 55.2%; trends do matter; I am watching if this reversal is real!

Trump must win Florida (hence focus there) - for first time since we started tracking polls; Clinton does NOT have 270 electoral votes with a greater than 3% spread.

Data: We have created three apolitical web pages that provide accurate information on where the race stands.

i) Electoral map: Can Trump Get 270 Electoral Votes
The map is updated each Tuesday evening with cumulative poll data from Real Clear Politics.

Latest Projection: Trump 187: Clinton 243 (excluding states where spread is too close to call)

ii) Trend Analysis: Road to The Presidency
The trend table has 13 rows. One for each week leading up to the election.

Latest Trend: Clinton down from 55.7% to 55.2%

iii) Swing States: Analysis of Swing States
This page has the same table as the national prediction, 16 battleground states representing 200 electoral votes.

Pages include links to Real Clear Politics, and FiveThirty Eight, for those looking to dig deeper.

Editorial Opinion

Allan Lichtman, distinguished professor of history at American University, doesn’t use polling, demographics or sophisticated analysis of swing states. He makes his predictions based on 13 true/false statements that he says indicate whether the incumbent party will retain the White House or lose it in a given election. Oh, and his predictions have been right in every presidential election since 1984. Google his name; I  found his model and predictions to be most interesting!

Facts: 55% of Americans want change. Polifact suggests that 70% of Americans think we are going in the wrong direction. Democrats have only won 3 consecutive terms since 1828. Anti-establishment sentiment in both parties is at an all time high. Clinton IS a career politician; and there are serious issues in her record.

Allan Lichtman, who I watched being interviewed last night, stated that his model (right every time since 1984) predicted that the Republican Party would win the 2016 election.

Then he hedged; and said. "but this election is not like any other election in history".

That is a fact ....

I do not think Lester Holt was biased as the moderator. I think Lester Holt was frustrated and insulted. He did fact check Trump SIX times; compared to Clinton's ZERO times. But it is insulting to be told Clinton started the Obama birth scandal. When you have Patti Solis Doyle, who was Hillary Clinton’s campaign manager in 2008; saying in public that she fired the person who brought this up, and personally apologized to the Obama campaign. Holt was correct in all six issues he raised. At the same time I do agree that one can legitimately question the moderators role in fact checking. I think that Trump has few friends in the media, and even fewer who will try and defend any blatant error. We will see what happens in the next two debates.

I think that this race will be decided by a small group in Florida, and to a lesser degree the other swing states, who sincerely want change, yet must decide:
- if this is best by a conservative party; led by a businessman; who has succeeded; lies at will; has paid no tax; built his political career on the birther travesty; and promises to make America great again.
- if this is best by the democratic party; led by a professional career politician; who has been proven to cover up; will change (refer TPP) position when expedient; and promises to build on our great America.

Obama has a 54% - 58% approval rating.

In 6 weeks we will know what influence Obama does have, on the few voters that remain available to be persuaded, either to turn out, or in their decision.

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