Election 2016 Newsletter

Introduction: I survived the weeks media watching, blog reading, and discussions, just ...

We began last weeks editorial noting that Trump was scheduled to meet Mexican President Pana Nieto, and go on to Phoenix Arizona to clarify his position on immigration policy. Both events were heavily promoted by the media as being critical to the election. They were covered live and occupied the lions share of the media on Wednesday and Thursday. Opinions range from; a complete success; to a total failure. I have my opinion which you can read at the link below. This includes a link to the transcript of the speech, and factual statistics for U.S.A immigration statistics, deportations and arrests. I added these as it seems clear from listening to the 3 cable channels, that we have a serious issues with facts, while newscasters suffer from selective amnesia or hear things.

Opinion: Florida Hangs on the Hispanic Vote

Friday: Immigration went South (forgive the pun) as the FBI released their internal records of the eMail investigation. All three media networks are in agreement. Why on the Friday before a long week-end? And by golly, this investigation will not go down in history as the FBI's greatest hour. Looking at it objectively, I see nothing that helps me make an informed legal decision. You could argue conspiracy, cover up, incompetence, to careless and innocent, depending of which parts you picked. The main media did exactly this, all Friday and into the week-end. It would have been nice to hear from a professor of law rather than the biased candidate surrogates from both sides.

Monday: You would think that a pastor who materially embellished his resume' might think twice before appearing on national TV. I guess not? Maybe thinking that it is OK to do this; excludes thinking that someone might fact check? As an aside; if anyone needs to see a copy of a web site at any point in time: https://archive.org/web/ - this free web service takes snap shots of web sites. I use it often; to find web pages that have been altered; or taken down. It can not lie!

Tuesday: The morning broke with a CNN National poll showing Trump to be 2 points in the lead. What a day. I have heard a lot, but this round of poll gymnastics took the biscuit. If you want the facts, see the three pages of data below.

Wednesday: Thank goodness for the $25,000 illegal donation from Trump's foundation to Florida Attorney General, Pam Bondi in 2013. Poll "maneuvering" immediately switched to Trump baiting. I am curious on the timing. Trump gave Bondi this money 4 days after her department announced it was going to investigate Trump university. The pictures of her walking with him, make her statement that she never spoke with him look like a lie. I doubt that we have heard the last of this.

Talk about the pot calling the kettle black. And I am not saying who is who. Between the Clinton Foundation and the Trump Foundation I see the facts of our political reality. Money is power, and it is used by those who seek power.        

Update: This week FiveThirtyEight's forecast has moved: From Clinton 73.0 to Clinton 65.9%

The total drop in forecast for the 3 weeks; down 12.5%

This is a material shift - although it is not reflecting into the swing states (yet) as much as it in the national data.

I think this quote I found on Yahoo news puts it best. "Donald Trump has a 35 percent chance of winning the White House in November, the highest pollster John Zogby has given him since winning the Republican primary in June. "He can actually win," Zogby told "Newsmax Prime" host J.D. Hayworth on Newsmax TV on Tuesday. "Odds are still against him," he added. "Demographics are against him. The Electoral College is against him, but this is very close."

The links that follow present the facts, from a high level map visualizing the latest electoral position; to a list of swing states and links to their cumulative polls.

Clinton has 283 electoral votes, where the poll spread is greater than 3%. If she holds this, she has won. If the trend against her continues, particularly in the swing states, Trump has a path (if slender) to win the election.

I was reminded that early voting in Florida starts on October 24th. This is less than 7 weeks away, and where I believe the 2016 election will be decided.

Data: We have created three apolitical web pages that provide accurate information on where the race stands.

i) Electoral map: Can Trump Get 270 Electoral Votes
The map is updated each Tuesday evening with cumulative poll data from Real Clear Politics.

Latest Projection: Trump 155: Clinton 283 (excluding states where spread is too close to call)

ii) Trend Analysis: Road to The Presidency
The trend table has 13 rows. One for each week leading up to the election.

Latest Trend: Clinton winning: Dropped from 73.0% to 65.9% this week.

iii) Swing States: Analysis of Swing States
This page has the same table as the national prediction, 16 battleground states representing 200 electoral votes.

Pages include links to Real Clear Politics, and FiveThirty Eight, for those looking to dig deeper.

Editorial Opinion

I think that there are two problems facing us today. i) It is really difficult to find the facts. Which is why Open4Politics exists. We need a place where accurate data can be found. Data that is not distorted by bias and journalistic opinions. ii) Many people are suffering from; lack of sleep; being led down; abuse; poor posture; bad eating habits; excess alcohol; fear; stress; anger; bitterness; and lack of exercise. These lead, and cumulatively so, to what is technically known as "limbic resonance" - or in my words; a brain that is poorly equipped to see the facts; let alone reason rationally from them.

At the extreme this is PTSD; its manifestation is an emotional disorder; leading to abuses of many kinds; including 20 suicides each day. per Robert McDonald; Sec. Veterans Affairs.

It seems clear to me from speaking to; independents; strong Trump supporters; strong Clinton supporters; that it is possible to see what we want to see in either candidate. In fact, I have heard good people; who I care for; describe Clinton and Trump in terms that I will not repeat here. I understand that we can feel strongly for one candidate and strongly against the other. But words like; I hate "insert candidate name" - are angry and bitter - and this is actually harmful to ourselves.

Question: Can anyone honestly say that either candidate does not love America? I agree that they both appear to have done many (many many many) foolish things. But they have both lived many years in positions of high authority in their respective fields. Yes we must evaluate who we think is better to lead our country by whatever criteria we have set. I do worry when I see a mean spirit, or anger or bitterness at a person God created, and who I believe He has His plan for.

I offer that we each consider any "limbic resonance" we might have - that we refuse to let circumstances and the media rile us up - and that we pray God will give our leaders what we ask from Him for ourselves.

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