This years model is going to track the Electoral College for 17 battleground states, representing a total of 238 Electoral Votes.
Conservative polling data suggests that 300 Electoral Votes have been decided. President Trump has 116 votes in his column while Vice President Harris has 184 votes to her credit. This means that President Trump needs 154 additional electoral votes, or Vice President Harris needs 86 additional electoral votes, from these 17 battleground states being analyzed, to get to 270 and win.
We did a similar analysis of Electoral Votes in the battleground states for the 2020 election. Although the polls were skewed in favor of Biden in the early weeks, the trend in Electoral Votes from Biden to Trump and the trend in probability, from Col 1: <3% to Col. 4: >11%, in favor of Biden proved to be an accurate prediction of the final result.
The polling data being aggregated in our model can be found at the web site - Real Clear Politics.
| Date | < 3.0% | 3.1% to 7.0% | 7.1% to 11.0% | > 11.1% | Total |
| 08/27/2024 | 25 68 | 17 70 | 25 33 | 0 16 | 67 171 |
| 09/03/2024 | 66 27 | 27 70 | 15 17 | 0 16 | 108 130 |
| 09/10/2024 | 50 43 | 27 70 | 15 17 | 0 16 | 92 146 |
| 09/17/2024 | . . | . . | . . | . . | . . |
| 09/24/2024 | . . | . . | . . | . . | . . |
| 10/01/2024 | . . | . . | . . | . . | . . |
| 10/08/2024 | . . | . . | . . | . . | . . |
| 10/15/2024 | . . | . . | . . | . . | . . |
| 10/22/2024 | . . | . . | . . | . . | . . |
| 10/29/2024 | . . | . . | . . | . . | . . |
| 11/05/2024 | . . | . . | . . | . . | . . |
Total trend: The Total column shows how many of the 238 available battleground electoral votes are polling for Vice President Harris (blue) and how many are polling for Past President Trump (red). The trend, or the direction that the electorate sentiment is moving can be interpreted by looking down the table and seeing the # of electoral college votes each candidate is being predicted to win.
Sensitivity trend: Column one shows how many of electoral votes are from states where the polling spread is less than 3%. Column two shows the same for states where the spread is more than 3% and less than 7%. Column three shows where the spread is more than 7% and less than 11%. Column four shows where the spread is greater than 11%. The weekly trend in each of these columns can be interpreted as the probability of the predicted result.
| State | # Votes | RCP Agg | 538 | Poll Data Link | Proj. Forecast Link |
| Arizona | 11 | 1.6 | 0.8 | Real Clear Politics | FiveThirtyEight.com |
| Florida | 30 | 6.0 | 4.2 | Real Clear Politics | FiveThirtyEight.com |
| Michigan | 15 | 1.2 | 1.9 | Real Clear Politics | FiveThirtyEight.com |
| North Carolina | 16 | 0.1 | 0.2 | Real Clear Politics | FiveThirtyEight.com |
| Pennsylvania | 19 | 0.0 | 0.7 | Real Clear Politics | FiveThirtyEight.com |
| Texas | 40 | 7.3 | 6.1 | Real Clear Politics | FiveThirtyEight.com |
| Wisconsin | 10 | 1.5 | 2.7 | Real Clear Politics | FiveThirtyEight.com |
| Total | 141 |
The 7 States listed above are ALL a must win for President Trump.
There are models in which Trump can lose one of these 7 states and still win. In our opinion, If there is BLUE in the table, and the spread (column 2 & 3) is greater than 3.0, this means that the aggregate polls our model is using, based on these 7 swing states, are predicting Vice President Harris will win.
| State | # Votes | RCP Agg | 538 | Poll Data Link | Proj. Forecast Link |
| Colorado | 10 | 10.0 | 10.0 | Real Clear Politics | FiveThirtyEight.com |
| Georgia | 16 | 0.3 | 0.6 | Real Clear Politics | FiveThirtyEight.com |
| Iowa | 06 | 12.0 | 12.0 | Real Clear Politics | FiveThirtyEight.com |
| Minnesota | 10 | 5.5 | 7.0 | Real Clear Politics | FiveThirtyEight.com |
| Missouri | 10 | 17.0 | 17.0 | Real Clear Politics | FiveThirtyEight.com |
| Nevada | 06 | 0.6 | 0.2 | Real Clear Politics | FiveThirtyEight.com |
| New Hampshire | 04 | 5.0 | 6.5 | Real Clear Politics | FiveThirtyEight.com |
| New Mexico | 05 | 10.0 | 11.0 | Real Clear Politics | FiveThirtyEight.com |
| Ohio | 17 | 9.0 | 8.0 | Real Clear Politics | FiveThirtyEight.com |
| Virginia | 13 | 5.3 | 8.0 | Real Clear Politics | FiveThirtyEight.com |
| Total | 97 |
This battleground analysis will be updated each Tuesday evening. For those who want to dig deeper, click on the Real Clear Politics link to see the latest poll results and a time/trend analysis, or the FiveThirtyEight.com link for a real time electoral prediction and its time/trend analysis.
Editorial
There are many more people with far more political knowledge than us making predictions on who is going to win the 2024 Presidential election. This is NOT why we are here. Our goal is to publish fact based objective data that people can use to come to their own conclusions. Please do not get mad at me, I am only the messenger!
I doubt that many of these political experts are focused on God's word or in helping America overcome it's anxiety at the outcome of this 2024 election. Our primary purpose in publishing this data is to give our readers an objective window into the polling data, that they can interpret as they wish & as God would direct, without anxiety!
I have watched people who claim to follow Jesus plumb new lows in what they have said about about past President Trump, current President Biden and vice President Harris. This is wrong and it is not what Jesus taught. We are to be a light in all we think and say and do!
On the 5th of November some 50% of America will wake up knowing that their choice IS NOT their president. Some 50% will wake up and know that their choice IS their president. My prayer is that ALL of America will wake up and remember that there is one ONE God, one Jesus, and one Holy Spirit, who loves ALL of His creation.
His commandment to us is clear, love God, with all of your heart, mind and body, and love your neighbor likewise.
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