There are 16 states, known as swing or battleground states, representing 200 electoral votes, that are traditionally contested by the parties. In practice, unless there is an extraordinary voting pattern (possible in 2016) Trump requires 115 electoral votes, and Clinton 87, from these 16 swing or battleground states to reach 270 electoral votes.
The poll data used by our model is from the web site - Real Clear Politics.
Date | < 3.0% | 3.1% to 7.0% | 7.1% to 11.0% | > 11.1% | Total |
08/16/2016 | 68 11 | 29 10 | 69 0 | 13 0 | 179 21 |
08/23/2016 | 50 21 | 47 0 | 59 0 | 23 0 | 179 21 |
08/30/2016 | 79 21 | 18 0 | 40 0 | 42 0 | 179 21 |
09/06/2016 | 57 43 | 61 0 | 20 0 | 19 0 | 157 43 |
09/13/2016 | 21 72 | 81 0 | 9 0 | 17 0 | 128 72 |
09/20/2016 | 15 64 | 82 22 | 0 10 | 7 0 | 104 96 |
09/27/2016 | 49 59 | 53 22 | 0 10 | 7 0 | 109 91 |
10/04/2016 | 50 11 | 69 40 | 13 10 | 7 0 | 139 61 |
10/11/2016 | 68 11 | 40 22 | 49 10 | 0 0 | 157 43 |
10/18/2016 | 0 29 | 94 22 | 29 10 | 16 0 | 139 61 |
10/25/2016 | 55 18 | 55 32 | 40 0 | 0 0 | 150 50 |
11/01/2016 | 21 64 | 66 16 | 23 10 | 0 0 | 110 90 |
11/08/2016 | 29 75 | 13 42 | 7 24 | 0 10 | 49 151 |
State | # Votes | Spread | Poll Data Link | Proj. Forecast Link |
Arizona | 11 | +4.2 | Real Clear Politics | FiveThirtyEight.com |
Colorado | 09 | +2.1 | Real Clear Politics | FiveThirtyEight.com |
Florida | 29 | +1.3 | Real Clear Politics | FiveThirtyEight.com |
Georgia | 16 | +3.4 | Real Clear Politics | FiveThirtyEight.com |
Iowa | 06 | +9.6 | Real Clear Politics | FiveThirtyEight.com |
Michigan | 16 | +0.3 | Real Clear Politics | FiveThirtyEight.com |
Minnesota | 10 | +1.4 | Real Clear Politics | FiveThirtyEight.com |
Missouri | 10 | +19.1 | Real Clear Politics | FiveThirtyEight.com |
Nevada | 06 | +2.4 | Real Clear Politics | FiveThirtyEight.com |
New Hampshire | 04 | +0.3 | Real Clear Politics | FiveThirtyEight.com |
North Carolina | 15 | +3.8 | Real Clear Politics | FiveThirtyEight.com |
Ohio | 18 | +8.6 | Real Clear Politics | FiveThirtyEight.com |
Oregon | 07 | +10.7 | Real Clear Politics | FiveThirtyEight.com |
Pennsylvania | 20 | +1.2 | Real Clear Politics | FiveThirtyEight.com |
Virginia | 13 | +4.7 | Real Clear Politics | FiveThirtyEight.com |
Wisconsin | 10 | +1.0 | Real Clear Politics | FiveThirtyEight.com |
Total | 200 |
This swing state analysis, our electoral map and trend analysis are updated each Tuesday at 12:00 PM PST. For those who want to see the immediate impact of any major event during the week, click on this - real time forecast - and review its trend analysis to interpret the electoral response.
Get Smart about Politics™