Election 2016 Forecast
 

There are 16 states, known as swing or battleground states, representing 200 electoral votes, that are traditionally contested by the parties. In practice, unless there is an extraordinary voting pattern (possible in 2016) Trump requires 115 electoral votes, and Clinton 87, from these 16 swing or battleground states to reach 270 electoral votes.

The poll data used by our model is from the web site - Real Clear Politics.

Date < 3.0% 3.1% to 7.0% 7.1% to 11.0% > 11.1% Total
08/16/2016 68 11 29 10 69 0 13 0 179 21
08/23/2016 50 21 47 0 59 0 23 0 179 21
08/30/2016 79 21 18 0 40 0 42 0 179 21
09/06/2016 57 43 61 0 20 0 19 0 157 43
09/13/2016 21 72 81 0 9 0 17 0 128 72
09/20/2016 15 64 82 22 0 10 7 0 104 96
09/27/2016 49 59 53 22 0 10 7 0 109 91
10/04/2016 50 11 69 40 13 10 7 0 139 61
10/11/2016 68 11 40 22 49 10 0 0 157 43
10/18/2016 0 29 94 22 29 10 16 0 139 61
10/25/2016 55 18 55 32 40 0 0 0 150 50
11/01/2016 21 64 66 16 23 10 0 0 110 90
11/08/2016 29 75 13 42 7 24 0 10 49 151

This swing state analysis, our electoral map and trend analysis are updated each Tuesday at 12:00 PM PST. For those who want to see the immediate impact of any major event during the week, click on this - real time forecast - and review its trend analysis to interpret the electoral response.

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