This chart is a simple representation of the best 3rd party data available (my opinion) on the web.
The poll data used by our model is from the web site - Real Clear Politics.
The # of electoral votes predicted for each party (e.g. 68 11) is shown in four columns. Each column sums the # of electoral votes predicted for those states where the poll spread (e.g. >3.0%) is in the range shown by the column title. >3.0 = uncertain. 3.1% to 7.0% = small majority. 7.1% to 11.0% = probable win. >11.1 = near certain result.
The (Total) shows the predicted # of electoral votes won in states with prob. >3.1. Latest: 272 181
The (Prob.) - real time forecast - is from FiveThirtyEight. This real time forecast shows who will win (by color) and the probability that they will win. It is based on polling data, electoral history and economic data. We log its prediction each Tuesday. This link - detailed user guide - gives an explanation of how their forecast is calculated.
| Date | > 3.0% | 3.1% to 7.0% | 7.1% to 11.0% | < 11.1% | >3.1 | Clinton Win |
| 08/16/2016 | 68 11 | 29 22 | 87 85 | 178 58 | 294 165 | 78.4 % |
| 08/23/2016 | 50 21 | 47 15 | 77 67 | 188 73 | 312 155 | 76.1 % |
| 08/30/2016 | 79 21 | 18 18 | 58 70 | 207 67 | 283 155 | 73.0 % |
| 09/06/2016 | 57 43 | 61 18 | 38 70 | 184 67 | 283 155 | 65.9 % |
| 09/13/2016 | 21 72 | 81 18 | 20 70 | 189 67 | 290 155 | 67.0% |
| 09/20/2016 | 15 64 | 85 25 | 8 80 | 179 82 | 272 187 | 55.7% |
| 09/27/2016 | 49 59 | 56 25 | 28 71 | 159 91 | 243 187 | 55.2% |
| 10/04/2016 | 50 11 | 72 43 | 18 80 | 182 82 | 272 205 | 70.8% |
| 10/11/2016 | 68 11 | 43 63 | 49 42 | 180 82 | 272 187 | 79.9% |
| 10/18/2016 | 0 29 | 97 74 | 29 31 | 196 82 | 322 187 | 84.0% |
| 10/25/2016 | 55 18 | 58 84 | 40 27 | 180 76 | 278 187 | 81.7% |
| 11/01/2016 | 21 64 | 69 39 | 23 66 | 180 76 | 272 181 | 69.7% |
| 11/08/2016 | 32 75 | 13 42 | 26 63 | 161 126 | 200 231 | 100.0% |
This trend analysis, our electoral map and swing state analysis is updated each Tuesday at 12:00 PM PST. For those who want to see the immediate impact of any major event during the week (like Paul Manifort resigning) click on the - real time forecast - and compare its "now" result to the latest Tuesday value shown in the Prob. column.
We have included the totals of electoral votes in four columns to give readers a sense of the numbers of electoral votes in states being closely contested vs. the numbers of electoral votes in states with strong majorities.
If four columns is too detailed for you, please ignore the columns, and use the total column. This shows the number of electoral votes predicted to be won by each party. Remember it takes 270 electoral votes to win the election.
The FiveThirtyEight election forecast is produced using a sophisticated model that is as accurate as anything we know. Knowing its latest forecast, reviewing how it is trending, and comparing this to poll predictions will make anyone an expert.
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