Donald Trump, like it or not, has created a media bonanza for CNN, Fox News, MSNBC and all other traditional media. Our televisions have been flooded with feast of fear-based censorious speculations. Culminating in this weeks anti-trump campaign. Melania Trump, near naked, posted, tweeted, and played as news, over and over and over again!
But in the midst of this gripping circus of political entertainment is a very serious question indeed. The answer to which might change the lives of every American citizen. The question being, will Donald Trump be the next American President?
There are questions to be answered before evangelicals will have to ask what Trump's nomination means to their conservative values. Starting with, can Trump get from 846 to 1237 bound delegates in the remaining Republican primaries? And if he succeeds in doing this, killing the establishments hope of winning a contested convention.
The thought of a Republican prize fight makes the mouth water. The establishment & its rules, Trump, Cruz and Kasich. The ultimate in reality TV political drama.
This article is for any who are fed up of listening to cable news hosts, who are either misinformed or being deliberately provocative, and would like to follow the facts leading to any open/contested Republican convention.
First: The rules for the 2016 convention are written by nominated delegates in weeks prior convention. They WILL include that the winning candidate must get 1,237 votes at the convention.
Second: Donald Trump currently has 1,153 bound delegates.
Third: Trump requires 84 delegates from 303 in the 5 remaining primaries to guarantee nomination.
|North Dakota||4/1/2016||28||0||Unbound 28|
|Wisconsin||4/5/2016||42||6||Win 3 / district; 18 state|
|New York||4/19/2016||95||89||Winner take most|
|Connecticut||4/26/2016||28||28||Winner take most|
|Delaware||4/26/2016||16||16||Winner take all|
|Maryland||4/26/2016||38||38||Win 3 / district; 14 state|
|Indiana||5/3/2016||57||57||Win 3 / district; 30 state|
|Nebraska||5/10/2016||36||36||Winner takes all|
|West Virginia||5/10/2016||34||32||Winning delegate|
|California||6/7/2016||172||172||Win 3 / district; 10 state|
|Montana||6/7/2016||27||27||Winner takes all|
|New Jersey||6/7/2016||51||51||Winner takes all|
|South Dakota||6/7/2016||29||29||Winner takes all|
Projections included opinion from Olympic average of estimates by Nate Silver, Harry Enten, Adam Geller (National Research Inc.), Daniel Nichanian (Daily Kos), Henry Olsen (Ethics and Public Policy Center), Margie Omero (Purple Insights), Patrick Ruffini (Echelon Insights) and David Wasserman (Cook Political Report).
April 01: North Dakota: Unbound delegates only
April 05: Wisconsin: Trump wins 6 delegates
April 19: New York: Trump wins 90 delegates
April 26: East Coast States: Trump wins 110 delegates
May 03: Indiana: Trump wins 57 delegates
May 04: U.S.A. Cruz & Kasich suspend campaigns
May 04: RNC announce Donald Trump as the presumptive nominee
Fourth: Open4Politics projects Trump winning 303 additional bound delegates.
Result: The Donald Trump bound delegate count at the end of primary season on 7th June will be 1,456
Conclusion: Donald Trump will be 219 bound delegates over a guaranteed win at the Republican convention!
First ballot: The RNC convention rules require all delegates to vote for candidates at the Republican convention, as directed by any applicable state rules. This is a condition of their attending the convention. Delegates are bound to a candidate that ended or suspended their campaign must vote as according to their state rules. Freed delegates, delegates that were bound to a candidate that ended or suspended their campaign,
Bound delegates: are directed to vote in the first ballot for the candidate they are bound to by the state primary.
Unbound delegates: are directed to vote in the first ballot for any candidate of their choice. The number of unbound delegates for each state (from nil to 54) were decided (rules published) when the state voted on how to participate in the Republican party primary process. Colorado (3) Oklahoma (3) Louisiana (5) Virgin Islands (5) Guam (9) Wyoming (18) American Samoa (9) North Dakota (28) Pennsylvania (54) - Total = 134
Update: April 9: North Dakota: 1 delegate of 11 names Trump as their candidate.
Update: April 26: Pennsylvania: 39 delegates of 54 name Trump as their candidate.
Freed delegates: are directed to vote in the first ballot according to their state rules. This is usually for a delegate of their choice. On March 30th; Rubio announced that he was not ending his campaign; he was only suspending his campaign. We will calculate the number of freed delegates available to vote for any candidate in the first ballot asap.
If Trump continues to avoid a "foot in mouth" collapse, as happened in Wisconsin, he will secure 1,237 bound delegates in the California primary, and before Cleveland. This makes him the "presumptive nominee" and assures him control of the RNC agenda at the convention.
Our analysis of the unbound and freed candidates gives a sense of how undemocratic the process to nominate Trump might end up being. Can you imagine, 19 delegates from Guam, Virgin Islands and American Samoa might decide this?
I hope all Christians will seriously consider what the Trump phenomena means to conservative evangelical values.