This years model is going to track the Electoral College for 17 battleground states, representing a total of 236 Electoral Votes.
Current polling data suggests that 302 Electoral Votes have been decided. President Trump has 116 votes in his column while Vice President Biden has 186 votes to his credit. This means that President Trump needs 154 additional electoral votes, or Vice President Biden needs 84 additional electoral votes, of these battleground states being analyzed, to get to 270 and win.
We did a similar analysis of Electoral Votes in the battleground states for the 2016 election. Although the polls were skewed in favor of Clinton in the early weeks, the trend in Electoral Votes from Clinton to Trump, and the trend in probability, from Col 1: <3% to Col. 4: >11%, in favor of Trump proved to be an accurate prediction of the final result.
The polling data being aggregated in our model can be found at the web site - Real Clear Politics.
|Date||< 3.0%||3.1% to 7.0%||7.1% to 11.0%||> 11.1%||Total|
|08/25/2020||74 75||46 10||18 0||13 0||151 85|
|09/01/2020||74 37||46 48||18 0||13 0||151 85|
|09/08/2020||78 22||57 38||13 10||18 0||166 70|
|09/15/2020||62 22||67 38||19 10||18 0||166 70|
|09/22/2020||62 60||67 0||19 10||18 0||166 70|
|09/29/2020||58 19||74 38||19 10||18 0||169 67|
|10/06/2020||55 0||92 48||36 0||5 0||188 48|
|10/13/2020||35 16||96 38||32 10||9 0||172 64|
|10/20/2020||66 18||57 38||25 10||22 0||170 66|
|10/27/2020||32 101||46 0||25 10||22 0||125 111|
|11/03/2020||43 80||0 38||27 24||14 10||84 152|
Total trend: The Total column shows how many of the 236 available battleground electoral votes are polling for Vice President Biden (blue) and how many are polling for President Trump (red). The trend, or direction polling sentiment is moving, can be found by looking at the increases or decreases week by week. (down the table)
Sensitivity trend: Column one shows how many of electoral votes are from states where the polling spread is less than 3%. Column two shows the same for states where the spread is more than 3% and less than 7%. Column three shows where the spread is more than 7% and less than 11%. Column four shows where the spread is greater than 11%. The greater the spread the greater the probability that the poll is correct.
|State||# Votes||RCP Agg||Tfg. Grp.||Poll Data Link||Proj. Forecast Link|
|Arizona||11||3.00||4.00||Real Clear Politics||FiveThirtyEight.com|
|Florida||29||3.00||2.00||Real Clear Politics||FiveThirtyEight.com|
|Michigan||16||0.50||1.00||Real Clear Politics||FiveThirtyEight.com|
|North Carolina||15||1.00||2.00||Real Clear Politics||FiveThirtyEight.com|
|Pennsylvania||20||2.00||0.00||Real Clear Politics||FiveThirtyEight.com|
|Texas||38||6.00||6.00||Real Clear Politics||FiveThirtyEight.com|
|Wisconsin||10||1.00||2.00||Real Clear Politics||FiveThirtyEight.com|
The 7 States listed above are ALL a must win for President Trump.
I have seen models in which Trump can win yet lose one of these but they are outside the scope of our weekly analysis. If there is BLUE in the table above it means Vice President Biden is being predicted to win.
|State||# Votes||Spread||Poll Data Link||Proj. Forecast Link|
|Colorado||09||14.00||Real Clear Politics||FiveThirtyEight.com|
|Georgia||16||2.00||Real Clear Politics||FiveThirtyEight.com|
|Iowa||06||8.00||Real Clear Politics||FiveThirtyEight.com|
|Minnesota||10||8.00||Real Clear Politics||FiveThirtyEight.com|
|Missouri||10||16.00||Real Clear Politics||FiveThirtyEight.com|
|Nevada||06||1.00||Real Clear Politics||FiveThirtyEight.com|
|New Hampshire||04||8.00||Real Clear Politics||FiveThirtyEight.com|
|New Mexico||05||10.00||Real Clear Politics||FiveThirtyEight.com|
|Ohio||18||8.00||Real Clear Politics||FiveThirtyEight.com|
|Virginia||13||9.00||Real Clear Politics||FiveThirtyEight.com|
This battleground analysis will be updated each Tuesday evening. For those who want to dig deeper, click on the Real Clear Politics link to see the latest poll results and a time/trend analysis, or the FiveThirtyEight.com link for a real time electoral prediction and its time/trend analysis.
There are many more people with way more political knowledge than me making predictions on who is going to win the 2020 Presidential election. I do well to stay out of predicting and to stick to mathematical modelling.
At the same time I doubt that many of these political experts have invested much time in studying God's word, or in preaching God's word, or in time of quiet prayer, or in bringing comfort to the hurting through the preaching of Jesus.
In the last 8 years I have watched people who claim to follow Jesus, and people who do not, plumb new lows in what they have thought and said about about our past President Obama, and our current President Trump. We have all become the chief judge and chief justice of people placed in authority over us, or allowed to be in authority over us, by God.
On the 4th of November approximately 50% of America will wake up knowing that their choice WILL NOT be their leader. Approximately 50% of America will wake up and know that their choice WILL be their leader. My prayer is that ALL of America will wake up and remember that there is only ONE God who is God of every one of us.
His commandment to us is clear, love God, with all of your heart, mind and body, and love your neighbor likewise.