Election 2020 Forecast
 

This years model is going to track the Electoral College for 17 battleground states, representing a total of 236 Electoral Votes.

Current polling data suggests that 302 Electoral Votes have been decided. President Trump has 116 votes in his column while Vice President Biden has 186 votes to his credit. This means that President Trump needs 154 additional electoral votes, or Vice President Biden needs 84 additional electoral votes, of these battleground states being analyzed, to get to 270 and win.

We did a similar analysis of Electoral Votes in the battleground states for the 2016 election. Although the polls were skewed in favor of Clinton in the early weeks, the trend in Electoral Votes from Clinton to Trump, and the trend in probability, from Col 1: <3% to Col. 4: >11%, in favor of Trump proved to be an accurate prediction of the final result. 

The polling data being aggregated in our model can be found at the web site - Real Clear Politics.

Date < 3.0% 3.1% to 7.0% 7.1% to 11.0% > 11.1% Total
08/25/2020 74 75 46 10 18 0 13 0 151 85
09/01/2020 74 37 46 48 18 0 13 0 151 85
09/08/2020 78 22 57 38 13 10 18 0 166 70
09/15/2020 62 22 67 38 19 10 18 0 166 70
09/22/2020 62 60 67 0 19 10 18 0 166 70
09/29/2020          
10/06/2020          
10/13/2020          
10/20/2020          
10/27/2020          
11/03/2020          
State # Votes Spread Poll Data Link Proj. Forecast Link
Arizona 11 5.00 Real Clear Politics FiveThirtyEight.com
Florida 29 1.60 Real Clear Politics FiveThirtyEight.com
Michigan 16 6.10 Real Clear Politics FiveThirtyEight.com
North Carolina 15 0.60 Real Clear Politics FiveThirtyEight.com
Pennsylvania 20 3.90 Real Clear Politics FiveThirtyEight.com
Texas 38 2.30 Real Clear Politics FiveThirtyEight.com
Wisconsin 10 6.40 Real Clear Politics FiveThirtyEight.com
Total 139      

The 7 States listed above are ALL a must win for President Trump.

I have seen models in which Trump can win yet lose one of these but they are outside the scope of our weekly analysis. If there is BLUE in the table above it means Vice President Biden is being predicted to win.

State # Votes Spread Poll Data Link Proj. Forecast Link
Colorado 09 10.00 Real Clear Politics FiveThirtyEight.com
Georgia 16 1.30 Real Clear Politics FiveThirtyEight.com
Iowa 06 1.70 Real Clear Politics FiveThirtyEight.com
Minnesota 10 10.20 Real Clear Politics FiveThirtyEight.com
Missouri 10 8.00 Real Clear Politics FiveThirtyEight.com
Nevada 06 6.00 Real Clear Politics FiveThirtyEight.com
New Hampshire 04 5.50 Real Clear Politics FiveThirtyEight.com
New Mexico 05 14.50 Real Clear Politics FiveThirtyEight.com
Ohio 18 2.40 Real Clear Politics FiveThirtyEight.com
Virginia 13 14.00 Real Clear Politics FiveThirtyEight.com
Total 97      

This battleground analysis will be updated each Tuesday evening. For those who want to dig deeper, click on the Real Clear Politics link to see the latest poll results and a time/trend analysis, or the FiveThirtyEight.com link for a real time electoral prediction  and its time/trend analysis.

Editorial

There are many more people with way more political knowledge than me making predictions on who is going to win the 2020 Presidential election. I do well to stay out of predicting and to stick to mathematical modelling.

At the same time I doubt that many of these political experts have invested much time in studying God's word, or in preaching God's word, or in time of quiet prayer, or in bringing comfort to the hurting through the preaching of Jesus.

In the last 8 years I have watched people who claim to follow Jesus, and people who do not, plumb new lows in what they have thought and said about about our past President Obama, and our current President Trump. We have all become the chief judge and chief justice of people placed in authority over us, or allowed to be in authority over us, by God.

On the 4th of November approximately 50% of America will wake up knowing that their choice WILL NOT be their leader. Approximately 50% of America will wake up and know that their choice WILL be their leader. My prayer is that ALL of America will wake up and remember that there is only ONE God who is God of every one of us.

His commandment to us is clear, love God, with all of your heart, mind and body, and love your neighbor likewise.

Get Smart about Politics™