Election 2016 Forecast

Electoral map at Tuesday 08 November 2016: actual & cumulative polling data: based on our model: 12:00PM PST

We believe that accurate predictions need a combination of "point in time" factual data (like this map) and fact based trend analysis. Our Trend Analysis and Swing State Analysis can be found by following these links.

Legend: Prediction (color) is based on the collective poll results by Real Clear Politics. The depth of color represents the poll spread (dark = +11.0) (medium = 7.1 to 11.0) (light = 3.1 to 7.0) (grey = -3). Results visualized by 270toWin.com.

Click links for prior maps: August 16: August 23: August 30: September 06: September 13: September 20
September 27: October 04: October 11: October 18: October 25: November 01

Visit FiveThirtyEight.com for real time updates, including a forecast based on their election simulations.

Media: I listened carefully to the major cable channels during and after the conventions. Without exception, all three have selectively covered; misrepresented and left out news to support their political positions.

Calling the media "rigged" is wrong. The media is behaving exactly as can be expected in the absense of appropriate financial regulation. Until Citizens United is repealed, and the billions that will be spent on media taken away, why would they not continue to do what pays them the most to communicate with their audiences.

Money: How can anything change while interested parties continue to pay the media and buy politicians. Trump has a point, but saying Clinton has been bought by wall street defies the facts.

Issues: I listened to every major speech of both conventions. Suffering for others took on a whole new meaning. Here is an alphabetical list of the major issues I heard: Affordable Care; America First; Child Care; College Fees; Corporate America; Climate Change; Crime; Discrimination; Economy; Education; Equal Pay; Energy; Finance Reform; Foreign Policy; Globalization; Immigration; Iran; Jobs; Law and Order; Maternity Leave; Media; Medicare; Middle Class; Military; Minimum Wage; National Debt; Oil; Peace; Police; Prosperity; Racism; Religious Freedom; Sanctuary Cities; Safety; Social Security; Security; Student Debt; Syria; Tax Reform; Terrorism; Trade; Unemployment; Veterans; Wall Street; and Women's Rights.

Character: I am ashamed to be part of this political process. Since when does all common decency go out the window in the name of politics. From questioning our presidents place of birth, alleging Clinton killed their son, to calling Trump a misogynist and a racist. If it is not 100% true, it is gossip to repeat it. We are surely better than this?

Conclusion: I understand fear. I have been shot at. I have killed women and children as a mercenary. I have PTSD from serving my country. I have lied to grieving parents about the death of their sons. I have covered up for the CIA and  politicians in the name of national security. I have lost a child to cancer. I despair over drug companies who place profits above cures. I also want to know that our next president will represent me, be strong, and make things right.

We all have a choice. Are we going to let the circumstances (challenging as they are) mold who we are. Or are we going to let the word of God transform us into who He has set forth that we be. I pray for a revival!

It is time to know God's Grace; to fear Him; and to follow Jesus as your Lord and Savior.

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