Election 2016 Newsletter

Introduction: I spoke at some length with a good friend, a strong conservative, a writer on sleep science, and a passionate seeker of truth over the week-end.

The purpose of the call was not to speculate on which party would win. I think he was surprised at my conservative objectivity though. I am not a liberal because I point out (see linked article on Florida) that many of the points Trump made in his speech about immigration were flat wrong. Wrong is just wrong. By either candidate.

I refused to speculate on what a victory (he did try) by either candidate might mean to America over the next four years. For the purpose of this editorial, I remind myself that I have no certainty of tomorrow. I do not know when Jesus will return, and like others on many faiths I live one day at a time. Today has more than enough happening already. I do not need to make things worse by being overly concerned about tomorrow. We considered when the words right and wrong (they are emotive words) were appropriate to use? We posited that a goal might be to rationally interpret any facts to get nearer to the truth.

Cable news has continued to set the tone of the 2016 electoral race. But as one pundit said this morning; "the campaign has deteriorated into a joke". Having watched 6 hours of this every day, across the 3 main channels; I would say; "the news looks more and more like a next worst episode of reality TV on steroids".

I am biased in my preference to New Media for factual information; but even that has lost it's objectivity. I think of the twitter blasts; showing a "doctored" image; suggesting that Hillary Clinton using an ear bud to be coached during the Commander in Chief interviews by Matt Lauer. Not true. But it took me almost 20 minutes of proper research; checking to the TV channels; to conclude this this was an episode of New Media mania.

I will give my opinion of what information I think matters to the outcome of this race in my editorial at the end of this eMail. I do ask readers to consider the weeks news in the context of the following real issue that will face our next President. The Economy; including 19.48 trillion in debt; A troubled Health Care system; China's expansion into the South Sea; A fragile cease fire in Syria; North Korea's nuclear tests; and an aggressive Russia seeking to regain its global power. The media might think Pence refusing to call David Duke "deplorable" major news. I am glad that our TV has a fast forward and an off switch.

The purpose of Open4Politics is not latest news. It is to help our objective readers follow reasoned thinking of data.

Fact: The election will be decided by the results in selected battleground states. In particular PA & FL, which the electoral college, and current polling, dictates that Trump must win to have a path to victory.

Fact: # of Votes = #Galvanized Base + #Get Out the Vote + #Independents

The outcome of the election will decided by the success of each candidate; to get the largest #; by working this simple formulae; in Florida and Pennsylvania. I am going to study the registered voters; their level of "galvanization"; the ground game to get out the vote; and # independents available to be persuaded; for these two states.

Until then; visit the links to our swing page analysis; to FiveThirtyEight and Real Clear Politics, who are objectively gathering poll data and cumulative trends.

Weeks News: There is too much to comment on.

I am going to list the issues I saw covered; in the order that they were covered; so no one can accuse me of giving bias to any one event!

Wednesday: Pam Bondi and Trump Foundation contribution; Commander in Chief reviews; (Trump: CIA briefing opposed President) (RNC: Clinton did not smile) (Trump: Obama vs. Putin) (Trump: Military sexual harassment) Dallas Morning news endorses Clinton.
Thursday: CIA Intel Briefing; Colin Powell email affirms Clinton;s position re his advice; Putin vs. Obama; Sexual Assault in Military; Clinton Foundation; Trump Foundation
Friday: North Korea; Paul Ryan and Trump/Putin; Media called "hard-line pron" addicts; alt-right debunking'; Rudy Giuliani affirms Obama a U.S. Citizen: Trump Foundation use of proceeds; Trump Tax Returns; Immigration
Saturday: Congress vote to allow victims to sue Saudi; Clinton meets security Experts; Clinton Foundation Pay to Play; Trump University; Pam Bondi
Sunday: Polls show toss up; Election is about American Identity; ISIS; Russia: North Korea; Lone wolf threats; Syria peace proposal; Hillary Pneumonia
Monday: Hillary Pneumonia; Hillary Pneumonia; Hillary Pneumonia; Deplorables; Deplorables; Deplorables; and I turned it off ....
Tuesday: Deplorables; Hillary Health; Trump Foundation; This is the result of polarizing politics

I defy anyone to review the facts of the above. Let alone make an informed decision on how what a voter heard (assuming they listened) might affect; the base; get out the vote; and independent voters; in the swing states.

North Carolina is the first state to start voting when it began mailing out absentee ballots on Friday and—voters there can also vote in person starting Oct. 20—Alabama does so later this week. Minnesota will kick off early in-person voting Sept. 23

The change this week is a tightening of the swing states. Florida has shifted from Clinton to Trump; according the latest RCP, a mere 0.1% - a toss up!

Data: We have created three apolitical web pages that provide accurate information on where the race stands.

i) Electoral map: Can Trump Get 270 Electoral Votes
The map is updated each Tuesday evening with cumulative poll data from Real Clear Politics.

Latest Projection: Trump 155: Clinton 283 (excluding states where spread is too close to call)

ii) Trend Analysis: Road to The Presidency
The trend table has 13 rows. One for each week leading up to the election.

Latest Trend: Clinton up from 65.9% to 67.0%.

iii) Swing States: Analysis of Swing States
This page has the same table as the national prediction, 16 battleground states representing 200 electoral votes.

Pages include links to Real Clear Politics, and FiveThirty Eight, for those looking to dig deeper.

Editorial Opinion

Last week I spoke on delusion caused by emotional disorder; and the extreme of PTSD.

This morning I saw a tweet from Trump, saying that his campaign was the first to propose child care support. I refer to the speech given with his daughter last night. Friends, this is 100% factually wrong. The Clinton web site published her position on child care support for months before the conventions. The surprising thing to me is to see Trump propose another welfare program; despite our trillions in debt; while conservatives go after Democrats for creating a welfare country. Might this be his falling #'s with woman voters in swing states?

I make no secret of the fact that I grew up in South Africa under an apartheid regime. I look back at my racist nature and what it took for me to change. I look more at the impunity with which we, as mercenaries, allowed women and children to be collateral damage in the war in Angola. You can see the details of this if you visit our web site; https://operationsavannah.org - it is why I have PTSD. I am open to the possibility that the Clinton Foundation has leveraged the Clinton name; and their positions (past and present) to get large donations from the very wealthy. I have yet to find, and I am looking, factual evidence of any U.S. foreign policy decision being influences by a single donation. I do have factual evidence of the 100's of millions that have been given and put to work in Africa. Saving teh lives of millions of people that desperately need our help. In time I will expose exactly how culpable America is for the 800,000 Angolan civilians who lost their lives. Forgive me if I am grateful to the Clinton Foundation.

I believe it is time for the Trump Foundation to come under the same level of scrutiny. I have seen, and worry about the many false comparisons that are being drawn between our two candidates. Like tax returns; none vs a complete history; health; few vs. strange doctors letter; the list is endless. The media is not biased. I believe the media is chasing censorious viewership with limited regard to investigative journalism. I think of the AP announcement re Clinton Meetings and donations which their editor has apologized for.

I am going to watch with interest as the Washington investigation into the Trump Foundation develops. Yesterday the Attorney General of NY opened an investigation into the foundations affairs. Citing the $25,000 donation to Pam Bondi, made to an obfuscated charity; at the same time as she decided whether to proceed against Trump University; and other irregularities. According to the Washington Times; the Trump Foundation has cash reserves of circa one million; while the Clinton Foundation has reserves of circa $300 million. More interestingly there is no evidence of Trump making any contribution to the foundation since 2008. While there is evidence of other organizations making donations; and Trump claiming credit for giving their monies away, and to some troubling causes.

Accusing a person of lying is something a journalist needs to do with care. I am going to hold my opinion until we have more facts. But it looks very much like Mr. Trump has crossed a boundary. I will not call Trump a liar for saying that he was opposed to the Iraq war, although the evidence is different. Or for saying that his tax returns are being audited, when we have no evidence of this. Or claiming that his campaign was the first to offer child support, which is plain false. This is the politics of 2016. How about we call this; 2016 political near truths? If the Washington Post research is found to be true; I believe that every person in the media will have the responsibility to expose Mr Trump's personal behavior for the fraudulent lie that it is. Claiming to be generous, or that you have given to the poor, when you have not is very wrong.

I believe it is time to hold both candidates and ourselves to the same objective standards, that are free of party bias. I believe that this election can be, and will be, a referendum on American core values.

I know I am a sinner who needs His Grace. As the parable taught; having been forgiven all; am I willing to forgive all; Clinton, Trump, everyone.

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