Introduction: This is the 2nd from last issue for our newsletter.
Which was created to assist readers objectively evaluate the outcome of the 2016 Presidential election.
I do appreciate those who have written to me and correctly pointed out any bias. It has never been easy to report on the facts and trends of this election. But I did not realize how much more difficult it would become as we approached the last days. I have data that could be presented to show Clinton will win in a landslide. While the same data could be used to argue that Trump will win in a landslide. I refer to the latest data on early voting. Published each night, by state, by 9 digit zip, by age, by sex, and by voter registered party. There is the polling data and the predictive models from FiveThityEight; RCP. Last night I watched the electoral prediction from Moody's, based on 3 political and three economic factors, and who have been correct every year since 1980.
This is now the ultimate political drama. "A fitting final Chapter to 2016's Sleaze Sweepstakes." George Will, Washington Post. On Friday morning most experts agreed that Clinton was up by 3 or 4 points nationally. Most predictions were factoring this lead into their analysis. Then came the letter from FBI Director James Comey to Congress, saying that there were further eMails to be investigated. On Saturday and Sunday it was leaked by sources in the FBI saying: i) there were 650,000 emails; ii) found on a laptop owned by Anthony Weiner (estranged and disgraced husband of Huma Abedin) (Clinton's long time trusted aid) iii) a warrant to investigate these eMails had been issued.
I have heard many stories. Sources offer that the FBI have given immunity to Weiner in exchange for evidence that will allow the FBI to show Clinton and Obama obstructed justice. Steve Pieczenik alleges that this is a coup for the people to regain power. This morning Obama criticized the FBI for allowing leaks and innuendo to affect the election. The FBI has leaked that there are two investigations into Trump, his associates, Russia and its role in WikiLeaks and efforts to disrupt American elections. Yesterday to FBI tweeted (just amazing) that they have released documents related to Bill Clinton and his pardon of Marc Rich in January 2001. Especially interesting to me, considering it was Comey who took over this investigation from Federal prosecutor Mary Jo White. Even more interesting to me, as I have facts about Marc Rich. In particular how the CIA used him as a vehicle to pay South Africa in oil for Operation Savannah.
The FBI have become part of this years political process.
Weeks News: The week began relatively calmly considering the standards being set for this years election cycle.
WikiLeaks: John Podesta e-mails exposing the inner working of the Clinton campaign
Obamacare: Price hikes in all 50 states
FBI: One vague letter from Comey to Congress. Six days of FBI leaks and intense speculation
Polls: Our need to know the future is obviously alive and well.
Mosul: The Iraqi special forces have entered the outskirts of Mosul
Syria: Bombing of Aleppo continues
Update: I have been limiting comment to the FiveThirtyEight and RCP Electoral projections.
This week, one time only, I have added some extra information, and my own opinions ....
I have identified three models, each based on factual data, that can be used to predict this election.
i) Poll predictions: FiveThirtyEight's election forecast: Clinton 69.7% - down from - Clinton 81.7%
The race was closing naturally. Polling since the FBI announcement suggests a significant swing towards Trump. Like Clinton from 81.7% to 69.7% is a sharp drop.
- ABC Tracking poll: Trump up 1% - suggesting that the Republican base is more motivated that the Democratic base.
- RCP National Average: Clinton up 1.7% - suggesting that this race is very close, with momentum to Trump.
Based on the electoral map and demographics, Trump must win all 6 "toss up" states: NV; AZ; IA; OH; NC and FL - and win 10 electoral votes from: CO; MN; WI; PA or VA - to reach 270
The FBI announcement has swung momentum Trump's way.
For those who believe in traditional polls (or alt-right polls) and momentum
Trump's momentum carries him to a narrow win.
ii) Early Vote Analysis
There have been 24.4 million votes cast as of now - which is 21% of the electorate based on 2012 - probably 18% of the total electorate for 2016.
The NY times announced this morning that Black votes were down as much as 25% over the 2012 turn out for Obama. Not happy information for the Clinton camp ....
But when you look at early voting in FL; NV and NC - all must win states fro Trump - you can find a very different story.
I first looked at Florida: where you can pick what you want to read; opinions vary on interpretation; but it is a fact that 4 million (about 35%) have voted.
Up to now, predictions have assumed that registered Republicans would vote Trump, registered Democrats would vote Clinton; and that turn out and Independents would decide the Florida outcome. Experts have discussed the possibility of "never Trump" Republicans voting for Clinton. But there has been no data to base opinion on. It was all speculation to include the # of "never Trump'" - who would actually vote Clinton vs. stay away or vote Trump, if reluctantly.
According to the CEO of Target Smart; they have polled early voters in Florida and asked them how they voted.
- 06% registered Democrat; voted Trump.
- 28% registered Republican; voted Clinton.
If this poll is correct; take the # of people who have voted; adjust the #'s to reflect cross over votes.
Clinton will win Florida and the election.
iii) Moody's Electoral prediction.
Moody has a predictive model; which has been right since 1980
3 political factors: i) Incumbent party support; ii) Voter Fatigue; iii) President approval ratings
3 Economic factors: i) Growth in economy; ii) House prices; iii) Gas price
Moodys' prediction, based on their state by state electoral model: Clinton 332: Trump 206
Open4Politics opinion: Clinton to win: 340 to 198
Data: We have created three apolitical web pages that provide accurate information on where the race stands.
i) Electoral map: Can Trump Get 270 Electoral Votes
The map is updated each Tuesday evening with cumulative poll data from Real Clear Politics.
Latest Projection: Trump 181: Clinton 272 (excluding states where spread is too close to call)
ii) Trend Analysis: Road to The Presidency
The trend table has 13 rows. One for each week leading up to the election.
Latest Trend: Clinton up from 81.7% to 69.7%.
iii) Swing States: Analysis of Swing States
This page has the same table as the national prediction, 16 battleground states representing 200 electoral votes.
Pages include links to Real Clear Politics, and FiveThirty Eight, for those looking to dig deeper.
I have said enough about the FBI investigation and its impact on the election. I am going to keep my words in reserve.
There will be no update needed next week. Only actual results. I will use the time to reflect on the final result and what it might mean.