Election 2016 Newsletter

Introduction: Up again at 5:00am PST. To watch the commentary on last night's Vice Presidential debate ...

According to CNN, Pence won on points, 48% to 42%. Key points from cable media includes: i) the debate will not shift the needle; ii) Pence did well for his 2016 campaign; iii) Kaine took one for his candidate; iv) Trump and Clinton have material to work with as they prepare for Sundays second debate. v) Sunday debate will determine if Trump can recover the momentum he has lost this week.

I do apologize for my "partly wrong" statement last week re stop and frisk. I should know better than to try and simplify something as difficult as an interpretation of the 4th amendment; the supreme courts interpretation of 1968; the recent litigation in NY, including a liberal activist judge, and the courts handing the matter to an appeal that did not happen. I will write up our research. But only after the election for I do not see any simple answer to rebuilding trust between communities and local law enforcement.

Weeks News: The weeks political news was dominated by Trump's "unusual" debate follow up ....

- Trump won the debate; according to polls he selected ...
- A 3:00am tweet storm; that proved me wrong about how long the media could spin Miss Universe of 20 years ago; 7 days ...
- Surrogates announce Trump to be a "genius" for avoiding taxes ...
- Trump Foundation served order by New York AG to cease operations without appropriate filings ...

Then there was the real news crammed into the remaining 15% of cable media coverage

- Shimon Peres, prime minister of Israel on three separate occasions; died on Wednesday at age 93.
- A Dutch-led investigative team confirmed that MH17 was downed by a Russian surface-to-air missile; fired from territory held by pro-Moscow separatists.
- The first successful veto override of Obama's presidency. ... allowing 9/11 families to sue the government of Saudi Arabia ... time will tell how this impacts Sovereign Immunity
- The Syrian Peace proposal fails
- additional troops authorized for Iraq
- Uber to create 500 jobs in Pittsburgh for research into driver-less cars.

I wonder how these 500 people feel about the 233,900 jobs they might eliminate. Being the estimated # of licensed taxi drivers?

Update: This week FiveThirtyEight's election forecast: Clinton 55.2% - up to - Clinton 70.8%

The 5 week trend towards Trump, has swung significantly back towards Clinton.

FL, PA and NC are polling "blue" effectively guaranteeing Clinton victory.

Data: We have created three apolitical web pages that provide accurate information on where the race stands.

i) Electoral map: Can Trump Get 270 Electoral Votes
The map is updated each Tuesday evening with cumulative poll data from Real Clear Politics.

Latest Projection: Trump 205: Clinton 272 (excluding states where spread is too close to call)

ii) Trend Analysis: Road to The Presidency
The trend table has 13 rows. One for each week leading up to the election.

Latest Trend: Clinton up from 55.2% to 70.8%.

iii) Swing States: Analysis of Swing States
This page has the same table as the national prediction, 16 battleground states representing 200 electoral votes.

Pages include links to Real Clear Politics, and FiveThirty Eight, for those looking to dig deeper.

Editorial Opinion

I received a request from a reader to be removed from our newsletter last week. It said, "please don't take this personally, but right now political commentary is just not good for my mental, emotional and spiritual health."

I did not take the request personally for I honestly believe that accurate information can help people in the important matter of electing POTUS each 4 years.

I believe that democracy depends on reason. Google "democracy and reason" - or - "politics as tribalism" - for information on this basic premise to an effective democracy. I do hope that we will reach our "no reason" bottom soon. That the process of electing a qualified president, free of instincts, free of feelings and free of tribalism will happen soon.


It seems that the race for 2020 has already started ....

Get Smart about Politics™